Ref. :  000035750
Date :  2013-09-05
Language :  Spanish
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Los precios mundiales de los alimentos continúan bajando

La FAO prevé una cosecha récord de cereales para este año


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El Índice de la FAO para los precios de los alimentos cayó en agosto por cuarto mes consecutivo y alcanzó su nivel más bajo desde junio de 2012.

El índice, que mide la evolución mensual de los precios internacionales de una canasta de productos alimenticios, tuvo un promedio de 201,8 puntos en agosto de 2013, casi 4 puntos (un 1,9 por ciento) por debajo de su valor de julio y 11 puntos (el 5,1 por ciento) menos que en agosto de 2012.

La caída del mes pasado estuvo impulsada principalmente por los continuos descensos en los precios internacionales de cereales y aceites. Por el contrario, los precios de lácteos, carne y azúcar aumentaron ligeramente.


Fuerte descenso del precio de los cereales

El índice de la FAO para los precios de los cereales tuvo una media de 210,9 puntos en agosto, 16,4 puntos menos (7,2 por ciento) que en julio y 49,4 puntos (19 por ciento) por debajo respecto a agosto de 2012.

El marcado descenso refleja las expectativas de un fuerte crecimiento de la producción mundial de cereales para este año y, sobre todo, una importante recuperación de los suministros de maíz.


Aceites, productos lácteos y carnes

El índice de la FAO para los precios de aceites y grasas se situó en agosto en 185,5 puntos, 5,7 puntos (3,0 por ciento) por debajo del valor de julio y la tercera caída mensual consecutiva.

El índice de la FAO para los precios de productos lácteos alcanzó 239,1 puntos en agosto, 2,8 puntos (1,2 por ciento) más que en julio y un 37 por ciento por encima de su nivel en agosto del año pasado. Los precios aumentaron el mes pasado para todos los productos lácteos que componen el índice, a excepción de la mantequilla, ya que los suministros para la exportación siguen siendo limitados en los principales países que la producen.

El índice de la FAO para los precios de la carne fue de 175,0 puntos en agosto, con un aumento de 2,2 puntos (1,3 por ciento).


Cosecha récord

Junto con el Índice de precios de los alimentos, la FAO dio a conocer un nuevo pronóstico sobre la producción mundial de cereales en 2013, que se espera alcance los 2 492 millones de toneladas. La previsión se ha revisado al alza en 14 millones de toneladas (un 0,5 por ciento) respecto al pronóstico del pasado julio, como resultado de una mayor cosecha de maíz de la que informó oficialmente Argentina y la mejora de las perspectivas en la UE y Ucrania.

Según los últimos pronósticos, la producción mundial de cereales sería de 179 millones de toneladas (7,7 por ciento) más que en 2012, lo que constituye un nuevo récord.

Esta recuperación estaría impulsada por un aumento del 10,5 por ciento en la producción de cereales secundarios, hasta los 1 285 millones de toneladas, así como un aumento de 7,6 por ciento en la producción de trigo, que alcanzaría los 710 millones de toneladas.

La producción mundial de arroz se espera que aumente en un 1,3 por ciento, alcanzando un nuevo récord de 497 millones de toneladas, en el equivalente de arroz elaborado.


Recuperación de la producción de maíz en EEUU

El marcado aumento de la producción mundial de cereales secundarios en 2013 estaría en gran medida causado de un fuerte repunte en la producción de maíz (hasta los 983 millones de toneladas), procedente en su mayor parte de Estados Unidos, donde se prevé que la producción de este cereal alcance 343 millones de toneladas este año, un 25 por ciento (69 millones de toneladas) más que el reducido nivel provocado por la sequía en 2012.


La utilización de cereales

La utilización mundial de cereales en 2013/14 se estima será de 2 413 millones de toneladas, ligeramente por debajo respecto al pronóstico anterior, pero un 3,2 por ciento más que en 2012/13.

En base a los pronósticos más recientes, el uso total de cereales para el consumo humano directo aumentará un 1,2 por ciento hasta los 1 094 millones de toneladas. Esto daría como resultado un consumo mundial de cereales per cápita que permanece estable en poco más de 152 kg, con 67 kg de trigo y cerca de 57 kg de arroz.


Existencias de cereales

El pronóstico de las existencias mundiales de cereales al cierre de las campañas en 2014 ha aumentado ligeramente desde julio, hasta los 569 millones de toneladas, principalmente por las expectativas de inventarios de maíz más altos. El pronóstico revisado sitúa las existencias mundiales de cereales un 13 por ciento (65,5 millones de toneladas) por encima de sus niveles de apertura y en su nivel más alto desde 2001/02.

En base a las proyecciones actuales de la demanda mundial, el aumento de las existencias elevaría el ratio entre existencias y utilización a nivel mundial al 23,3 por ciento, el más alto desde 2002/03.

"La situación general de oferta y demanda en los mercados de cereales ha mejorado mucho respecto al año pasado, cuando la producción se vio afectada por la sequía y un ratio muy bajo entre existencias y utilización, especialmente para el maíz, creó una seria preocupación", señaló David Hallam, Director de la División de Comercio y Mercados de la FAO. "Se espera que la producción –añadió- se recupere con fuerza y unos ratios más altos entre existencias y utilización deberían dar mayor estabilidad a los mercados mundiales".



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Fuente: http://www.fao.org/news/story/es/item/196058/icode/


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