Solid economic performance across Africa in the decade 1995-2005 contrasts sharply with the economic collapse of 1975-1985 and the stagnation experienced in 1985-95. The ADI indicates that spreading and sustaining growth going forward can be achieved by accelerating productivity and increasing private investment. Accomplishing this will require improving the business climate and infrastructure in African countries, as well as spurring innovation and building institutional capacity.
In 2005 [the latest year for which ADI 2007 posts data], the performance varied substantially across countries, from -2.2% in Zimbabwe to 30.8% in Equatorial Guinea, with nine countries posting growth rates of near or above the 7% threshold needed for sustained poverty reduction.
African countries fall into three broad categories along this continuum. The first group of seven countries comprises the region’s seven major oil exporting economies, home to 27.7% of the region’s population. The second grouping of 18 countries (35.6% of the region’s population) show diversified, sustained growth of at least 4%, and the third grouping of 17 countries (home to 36.7% of the region’s population) is characterized by their resource-poor nature, their strong volatility, are conflict-prone, afflicted or emerging from conflicts or just trapped in slow growth of less than 4%.
“Greater integration with the global economy especially through export trade, are characteristics common to all African countries that have recorded sustained growth. These according to the ADI largely explain the aggregate efficiency levels and investment volumes – comparable to India and Vietnam – recorded by these countries” Ezekwesili added, pointing out that overall investments in Africa increased from 16.8% of GDP to 19.5% of GDP between 2000 and 2006.
In such countries, ADI 2007 finds, policies have gotten better thanks to the reforms of the last decade, inflation, budget deficits, exchange rates and foreign debt repayments are more manageable; the economies are more open to trade and private enterprise; governance is on the mend and more assaults on corruption. These better economic fundamentals have helped to spur growth, but equally important to avoid the growth collapses that took place between 1975 and 1995.
ADI 2007 warns that growth in Africa is more volatile than in any other region. That volatility, it says, has dampened expectations and investments.
“ADI 2007 finds that avoiding sharp declines in GDP growth was critical to Africa’s economic recovery. Indeed, it was crucial for the poor who suffered greatly during the declines,” explained John Page, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for the Africa Region. “Avoiding growth collapses is key to accelerating progress towards the MDGs in Africa.”
The report identifies stronger and more diverse export growth as a key factor needed to sustain growth and reduce volatility. The study laments the higher indirect costs of exporting in Africa (18% to 35% of total costs) compared to indirect costs in China – a mere 8% of total costs. As a result, while efficient African enterprises can compete with Indian and Chinese firms in terms of factory floor costs, they become less competitive due to higher indirect business costs, including infrastructure identified by ADI 2007 as an “important emerging constraint to future growth”.
Sub-Saharan Africa lags at least 20 percentage points behind the average for poor developing countries also funded by the World Bank’s concessional window (IDA) on almost all major infrastructure measures – pushing up production costs, a critical impediment for investors. Africa’s unmet infrastructure needs are estimated to total around $22 billion a year (5% of GDP), plus another $17 billion for operations and maintenance.
Despite the negative impact of poor infrastructure, 38 African countries increased their exports as the region as a whole saw its exports rise in value from $182 billion in 2004 to $230 billion in 2005. Exports were fuelled by growing pockets of non-traditional exports (such as clothing from Lesotho, Madagascar and Mauritius); the successful connection between farmers and buyers (such as with the initiative which boosted Rwanda’s coffee exports to the USA by 166% in 2005); and the aggressive expansion of successful exports (such as cut flowers whose exports from Kenya more than doubled between 2000 and 2005, making cut flowers the country’s second export earner, after tea).
Drawn from the World Bank Africa Database, the publication includes a pocket edition, the Little Data Book on Africa, the Africa Development Indicators 2007 – CD-ROM, and the new ADI family member, the Africa Development Indicators Online. ADI Online contains the most comprehensive database on Africa, covering more than 1,000 indicators on economics, human development, private sector development, governance, environment, and aid, with time series of many indicators going back to 1965. The indicators were assembled from a variety of sources to present a broad picture of development across Africa. ADI Online offers the ADI essay, the Little Data Book on Africa 2007, Country at-a-Glance tables, maps tools, technical boxes, and country analyses.
For more information about the Africa Development Indicators, visit: www.worldbank.org/afr
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